Les Dir das selber doch mal durch.Bisher ist es für mich auch noch nen bischen undurchsichtig.
Was ich sehe ist allerdings reges Interesse in diesem Wert in den USA.
Size of MTX-180 ablation market, read this: 23-Jun-10 10:37 am
http://mediligence.com/blog/2008/07/11/a...
The article I link above tells you the true size of the ablation market. It is far greater than what is stated in the pres release. The press release gives you a number for SALES of DEVICES, in ONE year, for use in "interventinal oncology" only.
The MTX-180 can be used for many more types of ablations, and is expected to replace many systems which currently use RF technology, another market worth 335 million dollars a year.
Keep in mind that the end sale of an MTX-180 is only the BEGINNING of the revenue stream that will come to BSDM. It is the replaceable probe that is required for every procedure performed, that will generate hundreds of millions in revenues.
Each probe is expected to sell for $900 and have a margin of 50-60 percent. And each procedure can use up to 4 probes. The multiple probes are part of the large breakthrough and advance in the science that BSDM is bringing to market with the MTX-180.
Basic math:
Sell 100 MTX-180's (easily done, previously 800 TherMatrx100 DOT systems, invented by BSDM, were sold)
These machines are always kept in use by the facilities/doctors who buy them. Ever wait days/weeks for an MRI or CAT scan? There is never a moment the machine is not in use.
Being conservative, say the end user does 30 ablations per week with just ONE probe each week. Multiply by 52 weeks and you have 30 x 52 = 1,560 probes used in one year by one machine. Multiply by 100 machines (expected to sell in one year, as did the TherMatrx100 DOT system) and you have 156,000 probes used.
156,000 probes x $900 = 140,400,000 dollars revenues generated in one year.
All that revenue for a company that sells for $1.40 with only 23 million shares outstanding. A 32 million dollar market cap? Revenues could be almost 5 times the value of the company 1 year down the road?!
What if they sell 800 MTX-180's over time?
8 x 140 million dollars = 1.12 Billion dollars in revenues generated. That's "B" for Billion.
The upside for this company's stock is ridiculously high. Almost unheard of in the medical device community.
Yet there are those trying to put them out of business. Why? To save thier own skins. When BSDM came out with the TherMatrX100 it dominated the market so much so that the nearest competitor Urologix almost went bust. Their stock went from $30 to $2.
There are many companies out there who do not want MTX-180 to see the light of day. But that's a whole 'nuther story for another day.
I am buying all I can here, days away from 510k approval and the first sales of MTX-180's, which by the way, I believe they already have lined up, just waiting for the FDA nod.
With potential 100 million $$$+ in sales in the first year, the stock can easily support a 200 million dollar market cap, giving it a share value of $8.70 as soon as this is realized. From there it is straight up as revenues grow, much like the chart of LSCP or ISRG.
All of course, IMHO, which by the way, has made me a lot of money in the medical device industry before.
Good Day to all. |
