Original-Research: Finexity AG (von GBC AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Finexity AG - from GBC AG

05.11.2026 / 13:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of GBC AG to Finexity AG

Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker

Strong 9M beat, Capital Markets Day sets medium-term targets: forecasts

confirmed, price target adjusted for split

The FINEXITY Group comfortably beat its budget after nine months of 2026. On

a combined pro forma basis (including Effecta GmbH), group revenue reached

EUR7.31m, around 18.8% above the internal budget according to the company. At

-EUR2.49m, EBITDA was around 21.1% better than planned, again according to the

company. The driver was an exceptionally strong third quarter: Q3 revenue of

EUR3.72m exceeded that of the entire first half (EUR3.59m), and Q3 EBITDA

improved to -EUR0.29m (H1: -EUR2.21m). The key contributor was EUR1.08m in

advisory and structuring fees at nolivius, which, as management had flagged,

were booked in the second half of the year.

Management confirms its 2026 guidance (pro forma revenue of around EUR9.6m,

EBITDA of around -EUR3.5m). After nine months, 76% of the revenue target has

already been achieved, while only 71% of the forecast EBITDA loss has been

incurred. To meet guidance, Q4 revenue of EUR2.29m with EBITDA of up to

-EUR1.01m would suffice. In Q3, revenue and EBITDA came in at EUR3.72m and

-EUR0.29m respectively. The brand forecasts presented at the Capital Markets

Day add up to revenue of EUR9.0m to EUR10.0m and EBITDA of -EUR3.5m to -EUR2.9m. We

therefore regard the revenue guidance as readily achievable, while EBITDA

shows upside potential.

At its first Capital Markets Day on 13 October 2026, FINEXITY presented

medium-term targets for the first time: within three to five years, revenue

is set to rise to more than EUR70m at an EBITDA margin of 25% to 30%. EBITDA

break-even is targeted for 2028/2029 at revenue of around EUR20m. These

targets are broadly in line with our forecasts (2028e: revenue of EUR24.20m

with break-even EBITDA; 2030e: revenue of EUR80.00m at an EBITDA margin of

27.5%) and support our scenario.

In addition, the letter of intent signed on 14 October 2026 with the

insolvent OneCrowd group opens up the opportunity to take over the

administration of around 70 outstanding issues (subscribed volume of EUR33.6m,

servicing fees of just under EUR0.3m net p.a.) and to approach around 101,000

registered users, around 30,000 of whom are investors. The structure is

capital-light: contributions to the insolvency estate's costs of EUR25,000 per

month, otherwise performance-based earn-outs, and no assumption of

liabilities. The transaction is not yet included in our forecasts.

As the company's 2026 guidance is unchanged since our last report, we are

keeping our forecasts; we see the 9M performance as an indication of upside

in the current year, particularly at EBITDA level. We are adjusting the

price target on a purely technical basis for the 1:4 share split and the

higher share count resulting from the employee share ownership plan (ESOP).

Based on an unchanged equity value of EUR107.86m and now 5.36m shares (after

the split), this gives a price target of EUR20.12 (previously: EUR81.11, or

EUR20.28 adjusted for the split). We confirm our BUY rating.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=388e80e7f18ff45d194a8612dd6f6a0d

Halderstraße 27

86150 Augsburg

0821 / 241133 0

research@gbc-ag.de

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Completed: 5 Nov 2026 (12:15 pm)

First distribution: 5 Nov 2026 (1:00 pm)

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2429242 05.11.2026 CET/CEST

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